Hotspot Analysis of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD)

Project Overview

This project investigates the spatial distribution and clustering patterns of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) in the Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa districts of Sri Lanka. Using hotspot analysis techniques, statistically significant high-risk (hot spots) and low-risk (cold spots) areas were identified for two time periods: 2014–2016 and 2017–2020.

Study Area

The study focuses on the Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa districts located in the dry zone of Sri Lanka, regions that have been heavily affected by CKD. The analysis was conducted at the Divisional Secretariat (DS) level to capture localized spatial variations in disease occurrence.

Data Sources

CKD patient records aggregated by DS Division
Administrative boundary data – Survey Department of Sri Lanka
Base map layers for reference and visualization
Data Source: National Renal Disease Prevention and Research Unit

Methodology

Data cleaning and spatial aggregation by DS Division
Exploratory spatial data analysis
Getis-Ord Gi* hotspot analysis
Classification of hot and cold spots at 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence levels
Comparative analysis between two time periods

CKD Hotspot Analysis Maps (2014–2016 & 2017–2020)

Hotspot Analysis of Chronic Kidney Disease in Anuradhapura and Polonnaruwa

The maps illustrate statistically significant clusters of CKD cases. Red shades represent hot spots with increasing confidence levels, while blue shades indicate cold spots. Areas shown in white are not statistically significant. The inset map provides national spatial context.

Hotspot Classification

Hot Spot – 99% Confidence
Hot Spot – 95% Confidence
Hot Spot – 90% Confidence
Not Significant
Cold Spot – 90% Confidence
Cold Spot – 95% Confidence
Cold Spot – 99% Confidence

Key Findings

Persistent CKD hotspots are concentrated in parts of northern Anuradhapura
Emerging hotspots appear in eastern Polonnaruwa during 2017–2020
Cold spots are mainly distributed in southwestern regions
Temporal shifts suggest changing disease dynamics over time

Tools & Skills

QGIS
Spatial statistics and hotspot analysis
Public health GIS
Professional cartographic layout design

Conclusion

This project demonstrates the application of spatial statistical techniques in public health research. The results provide valuable insights into CKD spatial patterns and can support targeted health interventions, policy formulation, and future epidemiological studies.